If you’ve been watching the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) market and feeling like everyone is “waiting,” you’re not imagining it. February 2026 delivered a clear message: sales, new listings, and prices all moved lower year-over-year, while market psychology is being shaped by a mix of affordability realities and broader economic uncertainty.
Below is a breakdown of what happened in February, why it matters, and how to make smart moves (whether you’re buying, selling, or simply planning your next step).
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The February 2026 Numbers (TRREB)
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), 3,868 homes sold in February 2026, a 6.3% decrease compared to February 2025.
At the same time, new listings fell more sharply than sales: 10,705 new listings hit the market, down 17.7% year-over-year.
On pricing:
Average selling price: $1,008,968, down 7.1% year-over-year
MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: down 7.9% year-over-year
And on overall supply:
Active listings: 19,414, down 2.4% year-over-year
So what’s the story here?
Demand is softer than a year ago — but supply is also tightening because fewer sellers are listing. That combination is exactly why the market can feel “quiet” while still producing multiple offers on the right homes.
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“Both Sidelined” — What That Really Means
TRREB’s commentary described a market where buyers are waiting for prices to bottom and stabilize, while sellers are less motivated to list unless they truly need to move.
In practical terms, that produces a very specific kind of market:
Fewer casual listings (“Let’s test the market”)
More purposeful listings (life changes, upsizing/downsizing, job moves, estate sales, etc.)
Buyers shopping carefully and negotiating harder, but still acting quickly when a home checks the boxes and is priced correctly
A key detail from TRREB: the board estimates more than 100,000 buyers are currently holding off.
That’s an important number because it suggests the market isn’t lacking interest — it’s dealing with delayed decision-making.
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Why Uncertainty Matters More Than Ever (Rates + Economy)
1) Interest rates: steady, but watched closely
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on January 28, 2026, and flagged heightened uncertainty while committing to keep inflation near the 2% target. The next scheduled rate announcement is March 18, 2026.
Even when rates hold, buyers don’t just react to today’s rate — they react to confidence:
confidence about job stability
confidence about the economy
confidence about where rates go next at renewal time
2) Trade and economic headwinds are affecting sentiment
Multiple sources (including TRREB’s own commentary and broader market coverage) point to trade uncertainty weighing on confidence.
CMHC’s 2026 Housing Market Outlook also frames trade uncertainty as a major headwind, projecting slow GDP growth (0.7% in 2026) and highlighting how uncertainty can lead households to delay large decisions like buying a home.
In other words: this isn’t just a housing story — it’s a confidence story.
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The Big Takeaway: A “Quiet” Market Can Still Tighten Quickly
Here’s the part many people miss:
When new listings drop faster than sales, the market can quietly shift toward tighter conditions even if transaction volume stays muted. That’s exactly what TRREB emphasized — February 2026 conditions “tightened” versus last year because supply is coming down.
This sets up two very different experiences happening at the same time:
Experience A: “Nothing’s happening”
buyers window-shop
sellers wait
offer nights are less common overall
average days on market can feel longer in some segments
Experience B: “That one sold instantly… again”
turnkey homes in great locations
correctly priced properties
homes with scarce features (family layouts, parking, renovated kitchens, great school districts, etc.)
Both can be true simultaneously, especially in a diverse market like the GTA.
Property Type Watch: Condos Under the Microscope
In February, TRREB noted that all property types saw fewer sales, with condos experiencing the largest year-over-year decline in activity.
This lines up with what many buyers and sellers have been feeling:
Condos often face more direct competition (multiple similar units in the same building).
Condo buyers can be more rate-sensitive because payments are influenced by mortgage rates plus maintenance fees.
Some investors have become more cautious, particularly when economic headlines feel uncertain.
That said, “condo softer” does not mean “condo dead.” It means strategy matters:
sharper pricing
better presentation
stronger marketing
realistic expectations around timing
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What Buyers Should Do Right Now
If you’re buying in 2026, you’re navigating a market with improved negotiating power in many situations, but also pockets of competition. Here’s a smart approach:
1) Get financing clarity before you shop seriously
Even with a stable policy rate, lenders price mortgages based on broader market expectations. Knowing your comfort payment is everything. (And remember: your comfort payment is not just approval — it’s lifestyle.)
2) Separate “market noise” from “property reality”
A headline about average prices doesn’t tell you what will happen to:
the one home in the school district you want
the only renovated semi on the street you love
the two-bedroom + den condo with parking and a functional layout
You buy a specific property, not “the market.”
3) Make conditional offers when you can — but don’t overreach
In softer segments, conditions (financing, inspection, status review) can be realistic. In tighter micro-markets, you may need a cleaner offer. The key is knowing which environment you’re in before you write.
4) Watch listing trends weekly, not yearly
The year-over-year stats matter, but turning points show up first in:
new listing flow
showing volume
offer registration frequency
days on market in your specific segment
TRREB itself warned that if listings keep trending lower into spring, competition could increase.
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What Sellers Should Do Right Now
If you’re selling, February’s message is blunt: buyers are price-sensitive — and they have options — but they will act fast when the value is obvious.
1) “Testing the market” is expensive
In today’s environment, an overpriced listing doesn’t just “sit.” It can become stigmatized, forcing reductions and weakening negotiation leverage.
2) Pricing strategy should match the listing’s goal
There are two valid strategies:
Market-value pricing to attract steady interest and negotiate
Strategic underpricing (in select neighbourhoods/conditions) to drive competition
Which one works depends on supply in your micro-market, property condition, and buyer profile.
3) Presentation is not optional
When buyers feel uncertain, they prefer homes that feel “safe”:
clean, bright, well-maintained
low visible risk
clear documentation (receipts, upgrades, condo docs, surveys where applicable)
4) Timing matters — but so does motivation
If you need to sell (purchase closing, family transition, financial plan), waiting for “the perfect moment” can backfire. If you’re flexible, you can choose your window more carefully — but you still want a plan, not a guess.
Where This Could Go Next (Spring + Second Half of 2026)
TRREB’s leadership suggested that once buyers feel prices have leveled off — and if economic/trade news improves — the market could regain momentum in the second half of 2026 and into 2027, given the estimated pent-up demand.
Separately, TRREB’s 2026 outlook guidance has projected:
GTA sales range: 60,000–70,000 transactions in 2026
Average price range: roughly $1.0M–$1.03M
…with the first half expected to resemble 2025 levels, and potential improvement later if confidence strengthens.
CMHC also frames 2026 as a slower-growth year with elevated uncertainty, which supports the idea of a market that can stay subdued until confidence returns.
Put simply: the spring market may not explode — but it can still tighten if listings stay constrained.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to buy in Toronto or the GTA?
It can be — especially if you’re targeting a segment where inventory is higher and negotiation is realistic. But the “right time” depends on your stability, timeline, and the specific neighbourhood/segment you’re buying in.
Are prices going to drop more?
February showed continued year-over-year price softness on both average price and benchmark metrics.
Whether prices fall further depends heavily on confidence, listing supply, and the broader economy. The GTA is not one market — it’s dozens of micro-markets.
Will competition return?
It can — especially if new listings stay low through spring (TRREB specifically highlighted that risk).
That’s why prepared buyers often win: they can act decisively when the right home appears.
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Bottom Line
February 2026 wasn’t a “boom” month — but it wasn’t a collapse either.
It was a month that revealed a market in transition:
buyers cautious, waiting for clarity
sellers cautious, listing less
prices softer than last year
but supply tightening, which can quietly set up more competition later
If you’re planning a move in 2026, the best advantage you can have is a micro-market plan: your neighbourhood, your property type, your price band, and your strategy — built from current data, not headlines.